As expected corn bounced off the support at 243 ¼ early last week and rallied slightly getting as high as the 50% level at 255 ½. The high of the week at 259 ½ was just shy of the block of resistance we pointed out between 260 and 265. Last week formed pretty good support at 250 ½, so we can use these ranges to plan our trade for next week.

While in a still in a long term uptrend, corn is still in a downtrend for the short term. If the market closes below the recent support at 250 ½ look for it to once more test the 38% level at 245 ¾ and the recent lows at 243 ¼. If the market falls below this level the next support can be found at 239 ½.

A close above Thursday’s high could see a resumption of the longer term bull trend. There is a fair amount or upward resistance in the 260-265 area which could make things a little choppy. Above here things get a little smoother with the next resistance around 270. Volume figures seem to have stabilized. An increase in prices accompanied by increasing open interest would further serve to add support to a bullish rally.

Cotton is once more attempting to emerge from its downtrend of the last few months. This week saw the market close above the 40 day moving average for the first time in the last two weeks. Whether or not this is another false break out remains to be seen; however all indications are that a bullish rally maybe forming.

Friday’s high of 4465 put the market against some significant resistance on both the daily and long term charts. A strong close above this level, and preferably above the nearby 38% retracement level at 4497, should confirm that a bullish rally is imminent. Above here the next resistance can be found at 50% retracement of the July to October downtrend at 4591. There is more resistance nearby at 4610. If the market can get above these levels it could challenge resistance at the 62% level at 4685.

Technically cotton is still in a short term downtrend. This market has broken up before only to continue downward the next day. While there is pretty good support on Friday’s low of 4370 a close below this level could see cotton once more retreat to test the larger daily 50% level at 4330. The next support could be found at 4290 and 4255, before testing the 38% level near the recent low at 4175.

Beans continued their rebound off the 50% level last week by getting as high as the resistance at 554 on Thursday. While the market looks like it might want to go higher from here we could be setting up for a short term pullback next week.

If beans can post a strong close above Thursday’s high there is more resistance to a bull move nearby at 556 ½. Beyond here there might be a little more room to move as the next resistance levels are found at 565-567 and again at 574.

If the market is in fact going to pull back next week, look for it to close below the fairly firm floor on Friday’s low of 545 ½. Once below here beans might try to test the support at 538 which is near the 38% level of the last uptrend at 537 ½. There is more support found in the 530-532 range before the market would re-test the 50% at 520 ¾.

Early last week cattle pushed higher completing a rounded bottom formation after which the market subsequently fell off for the remainder of the week before finally settling on support at 4060. Friday’s range is bracketed almost perfectly by the 62% and 50% levels of the recent two week uptrend. We can use these levels to determine what the market might do next week.

Just below Friday’s low there is more support at 7040. If the market continues lower and closes below this level look for the support at 7015 to possibly shore up the market. If cattle prices continue to slide they could test the 38% retracement at 6986 and the next support at 6965.

There is a small gap left just above Friday’s trading. A close above the 62% at 7112 and the resistance that coincides with it at 7115 should see the market continue higher to 7185. If the market has enough momentum it could once again retest the neckline of the rounded bottom formation at 7250.

Well the other shoe finally dropped in the cocoa market and prices plummeted along with it! Once prices broke below the current and long term support at 2310 there was not too much left to hold the market up. The bulls jumped ship and the bears took over.Cocoa blew through all the anticipated support and retracement levels to close out the week at 1899. There is a huge gap left in the wake of Friday’s trading which might beckon to be filled next week, or the market might continue its slide to the larger term 50% at 1681.

The 38% retracement level at 1855 is just below Friday’s low. If the market does not retreat from here look for it to test the daily and weekly support at 1805. If market momentum is too strong and cocoa continues to decline it will test the recent lows of 1713 and very likely the 50% level of the uptrend located at 1681.

Cocoa’s quick decline has left a rather large gap behind. Normally when a market declines there is at least a pullback or two along the way as the longs bail out and the shorts load up on positions. So far cocoa has not had a pull back. Filling the large gap left behind last Friday might be a good excuse for the market to pull back early next week. Cocoa has upward resistance on Friday’s high of 1992, followed by the 50% retracement of the August to October uptrend at 2059. While it does not seem likely that the market will muster enough momentum to exceed 2059 at this time, if the pull back is strong enough to exceed the 50% level the next resistance can be found at the 62% level of 2142 and the mild long term resistance at 2170.

Sugar finally emerged from the range it had been in for the last week. The market broke up getting as high as 730 before encountering resistance. From here the market will need to close above 730 in order to test the next resistance level at 740. Volume and open interest are increasing along with prices indicating that the Bull Run might have some strength to it. If it continues then sugar should be a good position to complete the 50% retracement of the last downtrend on the weekly charts at 790.

If the resistance at 728 proves to be too much for the market to overcome next week, sugar will not need to go too far before finding support. If prices retreat look for sugar to retreat and test the current support at 716. Below here there is plenty of support to be found at 709 and 689 before encountering more support again at 684.

The bears took control of the Swiss Franc market last week driving prices through various support levels before finally finding support at 6613. There is a fair amount of support here, on both the daily and weekly charts. If the market can close below this level there is not too much to keep it from testing the support at 6550-6560 range. Once below here the franc could fall as far as 6450 before finding support once more.

If the current support level holds look for the market to retreat back into the trading range from last August. Initial resistance to the up move will be found at 6669 with more resistance slightly higher at 6707. Things get a little choppy above there with the next notable resistance level found at 6742.

Nothing special happened for silver last week as the market was content to channel within a small range between 428 and 439. The market is currently trading near the top of the channel and is looking as though it might want to continue higher; however the market is still technically in a downtrend.

A close above the top of the channel at 439 would see the market challenge the range of resistance at 444.50-447.50. Above this range is still more resistance at 452.50 and 456.50. While open interest is still strong volume has been picking up only slightly. A bigger increase in volume could give the market the momentum it needs.

Below the bottom of the channel there is nearly as much support as there is to the long side. If silver continues lower it should test the support at the recent lows before testing support at 421, 418 and 414. If the bear trend is strong enough it might even reach 406 and 402. There’s a lot of support here so trading could be a little choppy.

Send me your responses at ErichTHT@hotmail.com and I’ll share the results with you next week. Shaggy will also put up a survey at http://www.tradershelpingtraders.com/surveys.htm

It’s not always easy analyzing charts. When you are analyzing charts you have to take in a lot of information at the same time and then try to make decisions accordingly.

Sometimes in spite of your best efforts you just stare at a chart without seeing anything. Sometimes nothing is there; however other times there will be something on the chart staring you in the face and you can't see it for looking. A "can’t see the forest for the trees," kind of scenario. At times like this it is important to be able to stand back from the chart and try to take an objective look at the information that is there.

Many times the problem is that you have already made up your mind about the market before you even looked at a chart. You might be thinking that the market you are analyzing HAS to go up, and therefore your mind would ignore any short signals the chart might be generating. Try to keep an open mind when looking at a chart without presupposing that the market has to go up or down.

Other times you might only be looking at only some of the information available; thereby making your decision in a vacuum. While I am a great believer in a simple trading system, I can also appreciate the input of secondary indicators like volume, open interest, stochastics, MACD, etc to help in my decision making process. I would not recommend implementing so many indicators that you are left with analysis paralysis; however adopting two or three could help show you what the market is planning to do.

You should be in a good frame of mind when you are analyzing charts as well. If you have something else on your mind you will not be able to concentrate properly at the task at hand. Likewise if you are not feeling well or are tired, your decision making process could be impaired. I know several traders who will not trade if there is something in their personal lives that is causing them undue stress. They recognize the fact that to trade the markets successfully requires that they have the ability to fully focus on what the markets are doing.

If you still find yourself not seeing anything on a chart after staring at it for a while, take a break. Walk the dog or read the newspaper, just do something different to take your mind off of trading. There are several documented studies that suggest that the subconscious mind continues to work on a problem even though the conscious mind is no longer involved. This is why I keep a note pad beside my bed. There have been many nights where I have gotten some of my best ideas, or solved some problem in the middle of the night. Sometimes the only thing you need to do to solve a problem is to stop "thinking" about it.

Try to keep an open mind when you're looking at a chart and remember the market doesn't have to do anything you are planning for it. You're merely looking for clues the market has left to try and determine what it wants to do. It's almost like being a detective, a trading detective. And as a detective, your job is learning to read the clues correctly. You know...just like on TV. ;-)